you know what?  i had this whole big post planned with a bunch of prop bets but it’s saturday night and i’m just not feeling it.  and part of it is that it is a foregone conclusion to me as to what is going to happen tomorrow.  i think part of it is that i’ve had my head buried in the sand working on school crap that i haven’t had a chance to expose myself to erik’s sister and the super bowl media frenzy.  however, i’ve thought a lot about this game and no matter what happens, i can’t seem to alter the pre-ordained outcome.  it’s weird….i’m 90% sure that tomorrow’s game is not going to be close, yet i am more satisfied with the super bowl matchup than i have been in a long time.  and i think the reason for that is quite simply, the two best teams from the regular season are here.  don’t get me wrong, i like a nice underdog story as much as anyone, but the truth is, studying sports from a sociological point of view has ruined any romantic notions i have of underdogs.  think about it…when you root for the underdog, you’re rooting for the party that deserves to win the least.  do i root for bill gates to win the lottery?  do i root for jeffery dahmer to be cannonized? do i root for me to hook up with ugly women? no, no, and depends on how many drinks i’ve had.  my point is, we should want the best team to win and i think it’s idealogically lazy to default root for the underdog if you have no real reason too.  don’t get me wrong…would i be rooting for the lions if they were playing brett favre in the super bowl?  of course i would, but that’s because i hate brett favre, not because i have some misguided notion that justice is somehow served when the better party loses.  and unfortunately for the saints, there’s no one on the colts to hate.

of course the only candidate is one penis nose manning.  and much to my own surprise, penis nose has turned into one of my favorite NFL athletes in my lifetime.  besides his excellence on the field (when is the last time you remember the colts losing because of manning?), i’ve come to appreciate his approach to football.  it’s quite similar to kobe bryant actually.  he may be a sorry human being, but i don’t think there’s any question that he has taken his natural physical abilities and turned them into something sublime.  if kobe and peyton worked half as hard as they do, they’d still be pretty great at what they do.  but that wasn’t enough. and the stories of peyton spending an hour before his last super bowl throwing wet balls to prepare himself for the possibility of rain, that kinda stuff tells you that peyton is playing a different game then the rest of the league.  now you may think that this is the same thing as rooting for the underdog since i’m ascribing some kind of extraordinary moral character to this, like hard work pays off or something.  but it’s quite the opposite actually.  i like these athletes because i think they see the game and sports as i do.  peyton manning understands that being a good teammate doesn’t win you super bowls.  the ability to drop the ball 25 yards downfield into austin collie’s inexperienced hands while delivering the ball over the outstretched hands of the cornerback but away from the safety coming over to help…that’s what wins super bowls.  peyton won’t allow the the possibility for the failings of others to cost him the win.  and that’s why i like him.  he’s a machine.  he’s a nerd.  and he makes goofy commercials.  he’s the terminator of football.  unfeeling and relentless.

i think he understands his place in football history and that’s what people like him play against, history.  my guess is that he could care less if his teammates win a superbowl.  he knows that if he wins a second superbowl, he will cement his place in the montana/unitas/marino/elway conversation.  you want an underdog story? how about a white child of privilege playing the pretty boy position while alienating his teammates becoming one of this cynical sport fan’s favorite players to watch?

as far as technical and strategic concepts.  well, the miami game showed us that you can keep the ball out of manning’s hands with a clock control offense and still lose.  it’s cliche, but the only way to beat manning is to consistently bring the pressure.  manning’s qb rating against the blitz? over 100.  freeny? he missed a couple of games in the season, no sweat.  the fact is, when the starters play, the colts are undefeated.  new orleans has a nice offense, but that team needed 5 turnovers from the vikings to win at home in the dome.  do you think manning and the colts are going to turn the ball over 5 times tomorrow?  no, there’s only two words that can save the saints at this point: curtis. painter.

penis nose for the win.

colts 34 saints 20

this is how much i don’t care about football any more this season. 1) i waited until this morning to post picks and 2) i’m going back to bed after this because i’m tired and if i miss some of the colts/jets game, so be it.

IND (-8.5) over nyj, o/u – 40, colts (-380) jets (+380)
you could talk me into either side. i can see the jets going in there and keeping it close because that’s what the jets do. however, i think a more likely scenario is that penis nose blows the doors out. also, the line has moved quite a bit with lots and lots of money coming in on the jets, so…you know what that means.

min (+3.5) over NO, o/u – 53.5, vikings (+165) saints (-185)
god please let me be wrong.

back to bed aholes.

so this morning at work, as i take my leisurely stroll across the internet, it seems that the major story is that so far americans have donated over 8 million dollars to haiti relief efforts via the magic of text message (or should i say black magic?  get it?).  don’t get me wrong, i’m glad that money is being raised, but i’m uncomfortable by the pat on the back the american public seems to be giving itself.  i guess the prevailing logic behind this is that new technology has given us a new and better way to help our fellow humans.  maybe i’m a jerk, but this all feels wrong to me.  my logic is that we’re lazy s.o.b.’s who will only help only out of convenience.  here’s my problem with adopting the “technology is amazing and helping humans” angle.  was it really that fucking hard to donate money before?  why didn’t we donate this much after katrina or after the tsunami, when we were actually better off financially?  all you had to do was go online, go to a website, and make your donation.  time spent = 5 minutes.  it’s not so much that the new technology has enabled us to help.  we’ve always been able to help.  it’s just that we only choose to help when it doesn’t involve too much work on our part.  and apparently, 5 minutes was too much.  they say that things like this bring out the best in people.  i’m inclined to believe that it truly reveals our weaknesses.  i’m not saying don’t donate.  by all means, go and see what you can do to help.  but also, ask yourself why haven’t we helped more.

i know that doesn’t have anything to do with football, but i needed to get that off my chest.  i also needed to draw attention away from the fact that i was pretty much wrong about all the games last week.  but whatevs, wildcard weekend is overrated anyways.  the really good games start now.  as always, numbers from caesar’s and home team in caps.

ari (+7) over NO, o/u – 57, cardinals (+220) saints (-300)
as much bashing of jesus boy that i’ve done over the years, kurt warner was amazing last week. and i’ve felt this way since last year, but at this point, it’s clear to me that he should be a slam dunk hall of famer. isn’t it crazy to think that he used to back up matt leinart? the saints have a lot going for them this week. home field, an extra week of rest, people over-valuing last week’s win over an overrated packers team. but last week’s game was the single greatest game i’ve seen by a qb all year. even better than some of peyton’s games this year. i think the home field is negated by the fact that the game is indoors which only amplify warner’s powers. and i think the saints ended the year very badly. and it’s kinda been this way all year, but i think the saints play with too much emotion. and when it comes to emotion vs. the robotic efficiency of team jesus christ’s qb1, well, you can guess which side of the debate I fall.

IND (-6.5) over bal, o/u – 44, colts (-300) ravens (+220)
not many people know this, but penis nose spend the last 2 weeks in thailand on one of those sex-tours. i was skyping with him last weekend and you could see at least 4 passed out, borderline legal aged, and nude women in the background. have you ever seen anyone shoot up horse over the internet? it’s not a pretty sight. but he said he just needed to get it out of his system so he could concentrate on winning another superbowl. i asked him about winning the MVP award for the fourth time and he said, “well if that stands for ‘Most Vaginas Penetrated’, then i should have won every MVP since michael irvin retired.”

MIN (-3) over dal, o/u – 46, vikings (-135) cowboys (+115)
the jinx worked last week, so i really have no choice but to keep the mojo going. fredo and i discussed this game at length the other day and came to the conclusion that dallas has a very good chance of winning this game. mostly because jerry jones offered brett favre 300 bucks + use of a luxury suite during the NBA all star game. god i’m so excited/nervous about this game, i can’t even talk about it anymore.  also, it will feel very good to force favre into fake-retirement again.  lastly, for real gambling purposes, this one is a stay away.

SDO (-7) over nyj, o/u – 42.5, chargers (-33) jets (+220)
believe it or not, this line is a trap. there has never been a more perfect storm for vegas to get people to bet on an inferior team. the public will overvalue the jets because they won in the wildcard round. but vegas knows that they beat a not that good bengals team. further exacerbating the situation is that the jets play in NYC which will inflate their value even more in the mind of the public since their win got that much more pub.  the passing game of san diego is probably better than the saints at this point.  norv has quietly turned into a competent coach this season. do i think he’ll blow it at some point this playoffs? of course i do, but i think this is going to be a blowout.

well, there’s not much to say.  helene, she without penis, trounced all of the boys.  not only did she beat us, but she beat us soundly.  fortunately, only one of us has to live with her and suffer through a year of being reminded of their emasculation.  not really.  if you remember at the beginning of the season, i said that when females play this thing, they always win.  so since that part of the rule holds, then the other part, me being a football genius holds as well.  trust me, this makes sense in my head.  in any case, let’s take a look at the final standings.  in honor of helene’s victory, i have attempted to use a color scheme that reflects tabby cats.

as we can all see, the best thing about how everything turned out is how erik found himself back at the bottom of the pile.  furthermore, he came in last place in the big bet standings as well as the bob bucks standings as well.  for shame erik, for shame.  i guess now would be a good time to tell you that next year, only eric will be allowed to post picks as there’s really no reason to keep you around at this point.  another small point to make is that i pulled ahead in bob bucks at the last second.  i must say, that fredo and i really nailed the bob bucks all year.  fredo was steady freddy, and i just had some pretty ridiculous weeks.  i suppose i should also point out that i won the big bet round too, which means i won 2 out of the 3 phases of the game.  so if helene won the offensive phase of the game, then i won defense and special teams.  so maybe helene won the daytona 500, but i won the sprint cup champion points series.  asians rule.

in any case, congratulations to HELENE LEE, your 2009 BTG champ. meow!

anyways, as always, with the playoffs here, i’ll post picks, but we don’t keep track of win/lost anymore, we do it for the love of gamblor.  numbers from caesars and home team in caps.

CIN (-2.5) over nyj, o/u – 34, bengals (-135) jets (+115)
this line is shocking to me.  rookie qbs on the road in the playoffs have never ever worked out well in the history of history.  the crazy thing is that EVERYONE is picking the jets.  i can’t imagine any faultier reasoning than basing this on last week’s performance where the jets beat up on the bengals.  it’s matt sanchez people. MATT FUCKING SANCHEZ. i do think that the bengals are a little fraudy, but MATT GODDAMM SANCHEZ people! if chris henry and vicki zimmer were still alive, they’d tell you to bet the farm on the bengals.

phi (+3.5) over DAL, o/u – 45, eagles (+170) cowboys (-200)
this is purely a jinx pick as i actually for once in my life feel pretty good about the cowboys chances here. the eagles seem to be the consensus “expert” pick, but i’m telling you, the cowboys were specifically constructed to beat the eagles. they match up against the eagles better than anyone else in the playoffs. this could be a close game, that comes down to a field goal for the cowboys and who’s holding for the cowboys? could you imagine a more terrible scenario than tony romo fumbling the snap on a potential game winning field goal? and because i have thought of it, i’m pretty sure it won’t happen.

NE (-3.5) over bal, o/u – 43, patriots (-175) ravens (+155)
losing welker is huge. but the ravens don’t have enough to stop the pats on the road. flacco may as well be a rookie as he seems to have regressed from last season. but the real story is to beat the ravens, you throw on them, and guess what new england does really really well?

ARI (+1) over gb, o/u – 47.5, cardinals (off) packers (off)
this line started at cards -3. a four point swing. remember how i told you everyone loves the jets. well everyone + god loves the packers. actually, i take that back, god loves kurt warner. but, vegas never loses these games. rodgers has been pretty good this year, but this is still his first swim through the playoffs isn’t it? i guess we’re still waiting to hear on if boldin will play, but really, kurt warner is a good qb and the packers defensive line is still slightly below average. the cards faded a little at the end of the season, but at the same time, i think their running game got better. i happen to think that the cards are a pretty dangerous team this playoffs. i also happen to think that god is a pretty dangerous deity. just ask sodom and gamorrah. i for one, will not piss him off by picking against his second son, kurt warner.

in many ways, this final week of BTG mirrors the final week of the NFL. helene has all but locked up this years title. the only development is the clusterfuck that is the rest of us penis bearing chumps. 3 games separate 2nd place alfredo from last place eric. in even more surprising news, “erik” has managed to finally get out of the cellar.

the thing is, i’m actually not that upset that helene is going to win with her patented hometown/cat mascot super system of picking games.  i’m just really upset that i am going to finish below .500 for the second year in a row.  i’m officially terell owens, past my prime.  fredo has the excuse of kids and erik and eric have the excuse of living in pennsylvania.  i have no excuse other than….oh wait a minute, i totally kicked ass in bob bucks this year.  sports genius is intact.  on with the picks of the most meaningless games of the year.  as always, numbers from caesars and home team in caps.

BUF (-8) over ind, o/u – 33, bills (-400) colts (+400)
no implications for playoff seeing whatsoever, so penis nose experiments with acid this week and rides the pine as does all of indy’s starters. but that’s not why i’m taking the bills. i’m taking the bills because i’ve decided to use this last week to unveil my new system of picking nfl games. it’s similar to helene’s cat/hometown system. however, instead of cats, i always take teams whose mascots were also nicknames for fictional serial killers from jodie foster movies. peyton puts the lotion in the basket. put the fucking lotion in the basket penis nose!

CAR (-7) over no, o/u – 41, panthers (off) saints (off)
rule #2 of the new bob super system. always take teams in areas that could possibly be ravaged by hurricane. when both teams are located in hurricane country, take the team in the city where live sex acts are legal. which reminds me, it’s been way too long since i’ve been to the big easy.

CLE (-1) over jax, o/u – 35, browns (off) jaguars (off)
rule #3: always take teams whose mascot better describes the color of shit. the jagoffs need a lot of help to make the playoffs, yet curiously, there is no call by the media for jack del rio’s head.

phi (+3) over DAL, o/u – 47.5, eagles (+135) cowboys (-155)
time out on the super system for this game. jinx jinx jinx jinx jinx. let me go ahead and put out a prediction from the overreactor. if the cowboys win this game, they win the super bowl.

chi (-3) over DET, o/u – 44.5, bears (-170) lions (+150)
rule #4 is actually the same from the previous system. never take the lions.

HOU (-7) over ne, o/u – 46, texans (-330) patriots (+250)
rule #5: take the team with the qb’s gf/wife you’d rather have sex with. it’s a close call since giselle is hot and all, but matt schaub is dating erik’s sister and we all know what she’s pretty amazing in the sack.

MIA (+3) over pit, o/u – 45.5, dolphins (+155) steelers (-175)
see rule #2. you know, we really ought to be just betting the first half lines since any number of scenarios will eliminate either (and most likely both) of these teams by halftime.

nyg (+8.5) over MIN, o/u – 47.5, giants (+280) vikings (-360)
rule #6: when in doubt, eff brett favre.

NYJ (-9.5) over cin, o/u – 34, jets (-500) bengals (+350)
rule #7: take possible weapons used in major terrorist attacks over cats.

sfo (-7.5) over STL, o/u – 40.5, niners (-360) rams (+280)
rule #8: take the team whose city has a higher % of LGBT citizens. also, if the rams win this game and the lions lose, the lions actually win the tiebreaker for the #1 draft pick. the rams should do everything in their power to lose this game so that they have the right to draft donkeykong suh.  corallary to rule #8: make the team whose only win is against the lions your big bet.

TAM (+2.5) over atl, o/u – 41.5, buccaneers (+120) falcons (-140)
rule #9: take the city with better strip clubs. this is actually a close call. but i think mons venus beats the gold club. from wikipedia:

Furthermore, Mons Venus (like other Tampa strip clubs) permits its customers to touch and even fondle dancers, as long as there is no genital contact.

which reminds me, it’s been too long since i’ve been to trigga city.

ARI (-3.5) over gb, o/u – 44.5, cardinals (-140) packers (+120)
rule #10: take legitimate urban areas over backwater whitey cities. it should be noted that i hate picking this game because the cards level of effort could be dictated by the outcome of the early minnesota game.

kc (+10) over DEN, o/u – 38, chiefs (+350) broncos (-500)
rule #11: respect the native american mascot. no idea on this one.

OAK (+10) over bal, o/u – 38, raiders (+450) ravens (-650)
rule #12: take the team that has moved cities the most. the raiders have been a bit of a spoiler this season, so why not?

SDO (-3) over was, o/u – 39.5, chargers (-160) redskins (+140)
exception to rule #11: if said team is owned by a midget who is running a storied franchise into the ground…but seriously, teams whose coaches are about to be fired never do that well. and lastly, in the season finale of bruthaz:

jason campbell: man, i just don’t know about mike shanahan. i don’t know if i can work in his system.

obama: don’t worry jason, black qbs have always flourished in denver…oh wait a minute.

jason campbell: that’s what i’m talking about. you’re the president, isn’t there anything you can do?

obama: now come on jason, you know i can’t take advantage of my influence in this town.

jason campbell: sellout.

ten (-6) over SEA, o/u – 45, titans (-270) seahawks (+210)
rule #13: there are no rules. and we’ll put the system on trial.

it’s christmas vacation people. i don’t have time for this crap. hopefully you’ve figured out how this works by now. if not, numbers from caesar’s and home team in caps.

GB (-14) over sea, o/u – 41.5, packers (-900) seahawks (+600)

oak (+3) over CLE, o/u – 38, raiders (+155) browns (-175)

CIN (-13.5) over kc, o/u – 40.5, bengals (-800) chiefs (+550)

buf (+9) over ATL, o/u – 41, bills (+325) falcons (-450)

MIA (-3) over hou, o/u – 45, dolphins (-145) texans (+125)

NYG (-7) over car, o/u – 42, giants (-360) panthers (+280)

NO (-14) over tam, o/u – 49.5, saints (-900) buccaneers (+600)

jax (+8) over NE, o/u – 43.5, jaguars (+280) patriots (-360)

PIT (-3) over bal, o/u – 42, steelers (-145) ravens (+125)

PHI (-7) over den, o/u -41.5, eagles (-330) broncos (+250)

ARI (-14.5) over stl, o/u – 43.5, cardinals (-1000) rams (+700)

SFO (-13) over det, o/u – 41.5, niners (-800) rams (+550)

IND (-5.5) over nyj, o/u – 40.5, colts (-240) jets (+190)

WAS (+7) over dal, o/u – 42, redskins (+250) cowboys (-330)

min (-7) over CHI, o/u – 41, vikings (-330) bears (+250)

so i’m at home, so no photoshop means no updated charts.  just know that helene did well last week and i sucked.  dammit.  also, snow is stupid.  merry effing christmas.

TEN (-3) over sdo, o/u – 47, titans (-160) chargers (+140)

it seems kinda cruel to me to force people to play football on christmas. well, maybe not to jewish people or muslims, but still. in any case, these last two weeks are about as complete crapshoot as you can get. with season endgames part of the mix, it’s hard to know who’s going to be playing and who isn’t. titans fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt and the chargers locked into the #2 seed. seems obvious enough to me.