you know, i don’t think i’ve been this excited for football in a long time. maybe it’s because i don’t harbor any expectations for the cowboys to do well this year. maybe it’s because basketball and baseball haven’t quite captured my imagination this year like they usually have. or maybe i just love watching swole black guys running around the field in tight pants. Whatever, the case, it’s good to be back. after returning from a quick jaunt to vegas and reading pretty much everything on the interwebz about football, i feel really good about my chances in making this season the greatest season in BTG history. yes, that’s right, i predict a return to form and records of over .500 this year from both me and fredo….for erik, well, seeing as how he has yet to surpass me in the picks, we’ll believe it when we see it.
the rules are pretty much the same as every year. we pick ATS, with one bet being designated as the big bet and we’ll keep records on that. of course, there’s a bonus round where we wager bob bucks which this year are going at an exchange rate of 250 unicorns per bob buck or 1/100 hot carls per bob buck. and might i add with new high fiber diet, that’s quite the deal for everyone involved. in any case, money bets are made ATS as well as over under bets. last year i eliminated money line bets, which in retrospect wasn’t very fun of me. they’re back this year. parlays of course still work and pay odds according to this website. i’ve added a new wrinkle this year and i will allow two wager teasers for 13/5 odds. in other words, bet 10 bucks on a two leg parlay and if you win, you win 26 bucks. a lot more than 2-1, but not quite 3-1 which is where it should be i think. in any case, we all start with 1700 bob bucks and must wager at least 100 bob bucks a week.
now before i start, i’d like to extend a special invitation to any newcomers who want to submit their picks every week. erik and fredo have been doing this for a few years now and it’s always quite a bit of fun for us. i don’t mind keep track of the extra picks, and i don’t mind if you don’t want to pepper your picks with inane and non-related punchlines about erik’s sisters. like i said, it’s always been big fun for us, so if you’ve ever wanted to match wits with the witless, here’s your chance. anyways, that’s enough of that bs…let’s get to some pickin! as always, numbers from caesars and home team in caps.
ten (+6) over PIT, o/u – 35, titans (+210) steelers (-270)
shouldn’t big ben be knocking out much hotter skanks than this:
i mean, i don’t mean to make light of alleged sexual assault, but come on ben! you’re better than that. or is he? my anti-pittsburgh bias has reached ridiculous levels by the way. there’s no reason not to take the steelers here, but i just can’t bring myself to do it.
ATL (-4) over mia, o/u – 43, falcons (-220) dolphins (+180)
looks like vegas thinks that last year’s dolphins were a fluke and i’m inclined to agree. we’ll call it the temporary parcells halo effect, where he can’t help but have a positive effect on a moribund franchise, but eventually the sheen will wear off. And with each stop the sheen wears off faster. also, sheen rhymes with peen.
kc (+13) over BAL, o/u – 36, chiefs (+600) ravens (-900)
wow! vegas hates the chiefs without matt cassel. and so do i, but i don’t like the ravens 13 points more. is there any ways that flacco avoids a regression this year. wasn’t he just unspectacular enough last year to make you think he might have gotten just a little lucky? actually, i just like the points and the action on the money line here.
phi (-1) over CAR, o/u – 43.5, eagles (off) panthers (off)
this is a truly befuddling line for me. with the eagles you have a team that many are talking as super bowl contenders and with the panthers you have a quarterback trying to live down the single worst playoff performance in the history of sports. i guess the death of jim johnson will hurt, but i see white people overvaluing the role that old white coaches play in what young athletic black men do.
CIN (-4.5) over den, o/u – 43.5, bengals (-250) broncos (+200)
yay! the first shit matchup of the 2009 season! denver is going to really really stink this year. i want this to happen so bad for several reasons. aside from my natural hatred of the broncos, i really hate how hesitant sportswriters are to see the obvious, that josh mcdaniel and pat bowlen took a team with a couple of really good pieces to build around, to one that is starting kyle orton or chris simms. oh, and also, the defense still stinks. and why? because neither one are willing to admit that they made a mistake. well, whatevs…if this means denver wallows in mediocrity because bowlen won’t fire mcdaniel, then all the better for me.
min (-4) over CLE, o/u – 39.5, vikings (-220) browns (+180)
despite the favres being favored in this game, it looks like vegas trusts brett favre to be good enough to put the vikings over the hump, just about as much as i trust michael jackson to babysit fredo’s kids. seriously, if the vikings are supposed nfc super bowl representative material, shouldn’t they be favored by at least a touchdown and a half? still the browns are gonna be el stinko this year, and i’m going to continue to lobby for the contraction of the cleveland franchise. so i’m predicting at least a 10 points difference.
HOU (-4.5) over nyj, o/u – 43, texans (-240) jets (+180)
i feel like we’re perpetually waiting for the texans to make that next step. they have two star offensive players and a defense that is better than average. how come they can’t make the playoffs? last year i backed off of contracting them from the league, but if they don’t make real noise this year and show me some quality wins, then i’m back to being in favor of nuking houston, just like in the movie Independence Day with Bill Pullman and Jeff Goldblum.
IND (-7.5) over jax, o/u – 44.5, colts (-340) jaguars (+260)
this game is actually tougher to pick than you might think. the colts are in somewhat of a transition as the coaching staff has experienced high turnover, including the best dad in the NFL, tony dungy…and they’re bob sanders is out again for the colts and they don’t seem to be very good at stopping the run without him. and it just so happens that the jags have a pretty good little running back with the initials MJD. At the same time, the jags are going nowhere with del rio as coach, who btw, i’ve been decrying as a fraud for years and is only now starting to be criticized in the press. i’m awesome.
NO (-13) over det, o/u – 48.5, saints (-1100) lions (+700)
there was really not nearly enough attention given to the season of futility of last year’s lions. serioulsy, as far as i’m concerned an 0-16 season is just as detrimental, if not worse, to the well being of the league as finding out one of your star players mowed down someone while driving drunk. if the league is gonna suspend stallworth for a whole year, even after he’s done his time, then the league at the very least should suspend the lions organization for one season. That said, I think the saints come out firing and try to make a statement about their offense. i won something in the range of 7 big bets in a row in games involving lions…give me 50 here.
TAM (+6) over dal, o/u -39, buccaneers (+220) cowboys (-300)
obviously, jinx, but even besides that fred and i are convinced that the cowboys are headed to complete disaster this year. and as big a disaster as the buccaneers are, this is just the kind of game that the cowboys will be overconfident about. i can imagine tony romo at the post game conference saying how it’s only one game and in the big picture it doesn’t matter for that team, but that’s ridiculous. very simply, if the cowboys lose this game, go ahead and cancel the season. there’s no point in playing.
ARI (-6.5) over sfo, o/u – 46.5, cardinals (-300) niners (+220)
i suppose i could see kurt warner hurting his thumb in the 2nd quarter to this game and then never play another NFL game, but i’m not about to take shaun hill as my starting qb as an underdog on the road.
NYG (-5.5) over was, o/u – 37.5, giants (-300) redskins (+220)
on the plus side, the cowboys will be tied for third place in the nfc east.
stl (+8.5) over SEA, o/u – 41.5, rams (+320) seahawks (-420)
i like seattle to win but not to cover. although i think the seahawks are better than advertised, i also am starting to get the feeling that so might st.louis.
chi (+3.5) over GB, o/u – 46, bears (+170) packers (-200)
erik and i have discussed this at length over the past two weeks since we both have their respective qbs. i made it a point to watch cutler in the preseason and i’ll be honest, i was blown away. i really was unaware of how good cutler was at making the throw on the run. now i’ve come around to aaron rodgers as a decent quarterback, but he doesn’t really strike me as being particularly good at anything. is her particularly accurate…well, maybe but that’s it. the packers as a unit are pretty much unchanged so why should i expect them to improve over a 6-10 season?
NE (-11) over buf, o/u – 47.5, patriots (-800) bills (+550)
i’m a little shaky on this pic…NOT. tom brady is going to be just fine. there was a time when i thought he might have been slightly overrrated, but not anymore. just you watch, the pats are just gonna be like old times this year. i think TO will be fine this year, but not against belichick.
sd (-9.5) over OAK, o/u – 43, chargers (-550) raiders (+375)
this line should be double. jamarcus russell will be the biggest bust since alex smith. the chargers are going to win several games by double digits and i will bask in fantasy glory as LT returns me to the promised land. Ok, maybe not, but surely the chargers can score 10 more points than the directionless raiders, can’t they?
woohoo! that took forever. i’ll have more bets later, but for tomorrow night’s game, i’ll get these teaser payoffs started with a 20 dollar special with ten + ten/pit over. money in the bank.
Name: Bob
8 responses so far ↓
1 Fredo // Sep 10, 2009 at 7:03 am
Give me Pittsburgh and big ben’s proud rape victim for $20.
2 YES WE CAN // Sep 10, 2009 at 7:32 am
Ahh. The leaves are dying. What’s that in the air? A crisp breeze blows. Fredo’s mom does too. It must be autumn!
And that can mean only one thing — it’s time to get up and get moving. I have to get online and help the world understand the sport of American Football. My genius comes with great… responsibility.
Bob, it’s great to be back on the old Raginasian BTG. And your memory obviously fails you. Last year I trounced you in the picks. Yes, our Win/Loss record was equal, but in Bob’s bucks, you owe me about 500 hot Karls. That means I win big time.
All right — enough reminicing. Let’s get down to business.
PIT (-6) over ten
Ben Roethlesburger is a serial rapist. And if we know one thing about rapists, we know that they are phenomenal atheletes. Ask any Lakers fan. I’ll be taking the over here as well, because Santonio Holmes is playing with a chip on his shoulder.
ATL (-4) over mia
Wildcat!
kc (+13) over BAL
Breaking news: Kansas City is America’s worst sports town.
CAR (+1) over phi
I think Philly is completely overrated. Exactly how have they changed since last year’s disappointing season? Oh, that’s right, they brought in Mike Vick. And he can’t even play this week. We native speakers of English have a word for that: TRBL. I live in Pennsylvania now, and I can tell you with absolute certainty, the Eagles suck. I’d also like to take this opportunity to advertise that I’m looking to hire a bodyguard.
CIN (-4.5) over den
Bob, you’re right about one thing: this game is going to be a shitshow. Denver’s defense is still a hot mess and a half. Add to that a new coach, a new sucky QB, and a pissed off star wide receiver. Awesome! While Cincy is a joke on both sides of the ball, I’ll let them win their home opener.
min (-4) over CLE
I picked the Browns once. Never again. Not even against the Favres.
HOU (-4.5) over nyj
Shit. Storm.
jax (+7.5) over IND
Jacksonville, whose official abbreviation is JAC, actually always has Peyton’s number. Meanwhile, I think the transition there at Standard Oil Stadium isn’t quite complete yet. Add to that the classic weak Indy run D and we have ourselves a nice little upset.
det (+13) over NO
And so it begins. The Road To I — can the Lions win a single game this season, or will their losing streak extend to 17 games? Well, my annual real money bet on the Lions in week 1 says they will lose by less than 12.5. Bob, you’re overlooking a crucial component of this game. And that is your 2009 Number One Draft Pick JOey Harr– I mean Matthew Stafford. This guy has it all. The rocket for an arm. The decision-making. The Detroit branch of the Interceptions restaurant chain. I mean, what more can we ask for? He’s the total package. Stafford’s even going to play middle linebacker, nosetackle, strong safety, and every now and again they’ll line him up at defensive end. Detroit, you have your savior. Hallelujah. GIVE ME 50. I’M CRYING AS I WRITE THIS. ARE YOU HAPPY NOW, FUCKERS?
TAM (+6) over dal
This is not a jinx pick, folks. I think Dirk Johnson is going to get into the NFL record books by punting the football into the scoreboard approximately 25 times in the first quarter alone. And then, at halftime, he’ll walk onto the Dallas star at midfield and reveal the amazing porn schlong that a punter named Dirk Johnson obviously must have. This is going to be a great game for Tampa Bay Buccaneer fans. (seriously I was going to make the punt off the scoreboard joke, but I had no idea that the punter’s name is Dirk Johnson. that is fucking perfect)
ARI (-6.5) over sfo
My favorite part of the 2009 season is that Mike Martz can’t get a job in the NFL. That guy is a certified fuckwit. Naturally, he’ll be providing expert commentary next to Matt Millen on the NFL network this season. Meanwhile, the team he led to failure last year will continue its losing ways. And Larry Fitzgerald will score 5 touchdowns in the first half. (New feature: my fantasy players will be making regular appearances in the picks)
NYG (-5.5) over was
The Redskins are a racist franchise.
stl (+8.5) over SEA
Steven Jackson. He’s going to party like it’s 2006. And I’m convinced that Seattle isn’t a forgotten franchise because they’re so far away. They’re forgotten because they suck.
GB (-3.5) over chi
This game has created a lot of controversy in the offseason for those of us in the football genius community. I mean, here we have two of the most storied franchises in sports. Da Bears, and the Cheesesticks. I am supposed to hate them both, since they’re rivals of the soon-to-be-champion Detroit Lions. And yet, I find myself confused and aroused by both of these teams. Chicago has the defensive tradition, and the run-first philosophy… until this year, that is. Chicago’s D is a shadow of its former self. Age, attrition, and lack of new talent to plug the holes means that they’ll be a midrange D at best this year. Add to that a weak offensive line, and a shiny new QB and Chicago will hardly be recongizable this year. They’ll be passing the ball over and over and over… to Green Bay’s underrated D. The cheeseheads have a really good team this year. The D was great already, and now the offense finally appears to be in sync. Watch out, NFC North. There’s a new sherriff in town. And he wears green and yellow.
buf (+11) over NE
I don’t know how many times I have to say this. NEW ENGLAND CHEATED IN EVERY GAME FOR 6 YEARS. All those super bowls and eveyr single victory they had between 2001 and 2008 needs to be taken away. Thanks to years of illegal videotapes, they still knew most of the defensive signals for their opponents last year. By now, the league has changed enough that the Pats library of stolen signals is now really stale. Expect a big fall off in offensive production this year. Also, Buffalo is awesome.
OAK (+9.5) over sd
Two rules on Monday Night Games — if they feature the Oakland Raiders, it will be a shitty game. However, always take the home dog. You’re an idiot, Bob.
BOB’S BUCKS
Let the hot karls commence! So messy!
$100 det
$10 ten-pit OVER
$10 HOU-nyj UNDER
$10 IND-jax OVER
And the “YOU LIE!” Red State Spectacular Parlay:
$20.09 ten/atl/hou/no/dal/ari/stl
3 "Eric" // Sep 10, 2009 at 1:37 pm
The simpleton Midwesterner says:
–
TEN over PIT
MIA over ATL
BAL over KC
PHI over CAR
CIN over DEN
MIN over CLE
NYJ over HOU
IND over JAX
DET over NO — no chance DET wins
DAL over TB
ARI over SFO
NYG over WAS
SEA over STL
GB over CHI
NE over BUF
SD over OAK
$50 MIN
$25 DET
$25 parlay: DET and UNDER
4 helene // Sep 10, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Alrightee bob, my fellow ragin’ asian,
in an effort to prove that you, erik and fredo are full of sheeeeeet in thinking that you boys know everything to know about the nfl, i will join in your weekly bets. using my tried and true strategy in order of importance a) did i live/was born/live near the city of choice b) is someone i like from said city or c) is the mascot cat-related, i will see if i can beat at least erik.
Steelers over Titans because two friends of mine are from Pittsburgh, my family used to live in Pittsburgh and now I live in Pennsyltucky.
Atlanta over MIA because my college roommate lives there now.
Baltimore over KC because it is only an hour and a half away from Pennsyltucky.
Philly over Carolina because even though I’m going against a cat mascot, I have five friends who live in Philly and now I live in Pennsyltucky.
Cincinatti over Denver because I was born in Ohio.
Cleveland over Min because of reason above. I have also decided that Cleveland will be my main team because that is the closest city in Ohio to Youngstown where I was born and their mascot is the Browns.
NY Jets over Hou because the Degiuli/Cammarano clan are in New jersey and that is close to new york and the mascot of HOU isn’t cat-related.
Jax over Ind because their mascot is cat-related.
Lions over NO which was tough because I used to live in NO which is my first category but because I feel bad for Erik and Lions are cat-related I will support them.
Cowboys over TAM because Bob is from there, even though he is not supporting them.
SF over ARI because it’s a California team.
SD over Oak because it’s a closer California team and the raiders fled from LA and left us with no football team.
NYG over Was because the mascot is offensive.
GB over Chi because a friend of mine is from Wisconsin.
NE over Buf because I’m not a terrorist and of course then would support a team called the patriots.
I don’t understand Bob’s bucks but since I must do at least $100 each week I say,
$100 CLE
$10 Det because I want Erik’s team not to be more historically bad than they already are.
5 alfredo // Sep 12, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Mia (+4) over ATL
I had dinner with matt ryan earlier this week and we talked about how he plans to throw two interceptions. We also talked about how he prefers hotel porn to his home collection and how he is a bigger fan of speedcore and experimental folktronica than most fans would guess. We also talked about how he likes to visualize a game in his head a few days before the actual contest. His technique involves imagining his team at 1:8 scale and in tiny suits of armor with the underwear on the outside and the opposing team as Masters of the Universe characters. He also told me that this is “the latest shit.” He also told me that fucking Orko blocks a punt in the 4th quarter, but that Atlanta manages to win by a point anyway. I was really impressed with the way this young man prepares for a game.
BAL (-13) over kc
Erik is right. Since we kicked Detroit out of America, Kansas City is the new worst sports town in the country.
phi (-1) over CAR
Jim Johnson’s dying wish? “Cover the goddamn spread, boys; cover it.”
CIN (-4.5) over den
Shitacular.
min (-4) over CLE
Brett Favre’s new thing when he sits on the bench is to take a dump in a potty seat made out of those retard cheesehead things that fat people wear to football games. I’m starting to come around on this guy.
nyj (+4.5) over HOU
I hate that we get the damn Houston games on CBS here in Dallas. I wish the TV people would understand that the only people who want to watch the fucking Texans are alcoholics with erection problems who are thinking of buying a new car after they go to the hardware store.
IND (-7.5) over jax
The best part about a new season is the return of Penisnose Manning. I had a chance to talk with him earlier in the week. He talked about his hectic off season: “laying out at the pool over my apartment complex, shooting guns and shit, playing cards and shit, lots of hookers, I mean LOTS of fucking hookers, and hells yeah – throwing lots of sweet TDs, my man.” He also mentioned that Anthony Gonzalez is going to be fantasy gold this year and that living in the Midwest “fucking kicks major fucking ass.” 50, bitches.
det (+13) over NO
Lions kill Saints. Seriously, Erik, Detroit has a shot here. I’ll be on the money line here. Will you.
Dal (-6) over TAM
Jesus, Erik, they are playing in Tampa, you idiot. A Dallas loss here would be a tragedy, like a Kennedy death, but way, way worse. Seriously, Bob, season would be over. Anyway, this should be an easy win for Dallas, laying the groundwork for four months of increasing disappointment and ultimate failure.
ARI (-6.5) over sfo
I don’t like it much. Games without cat-related mascots are tough. L
NYG (-5.5) over was
The Giants are going to be good, though the black quarterback/black president synergy in DC is intriguing. Something to watch develop this year, fellas. Will Campbell be more prone to wild-ass scrambling and will Obama throw out even more schoolyard improv this season? I’m going to tune in to “Brothers” on Fox this fall to find out.
stl (+8.5) over SEA
This is the most mysterious game ever. No one is going to watch it, no one cares about it, and no one has a damn clue about what’s going to happen. This game is a metaphor for Erik’s childhood. Let’s just hope Hasselbeck doesn’t get molested.
chi (+3.5) over GB
Erik and Bob are gay.
NE (-11) over buf
And Tom Brady is handsome.
sd (-9.5) over OAK
2006 Monday Night opener, sd at OAK, 27-0 Chargers. Like anything has changed in America since then.
$20 mia-ATL UNDER
$20 den-CIN UNDER
$20 nyj-HOU UNDER
$100 IND
$10 Det
$10 Det (ML)
$20 det-NO OVER
$20 buf-NE OVER
$100 dal (because the season is over anyway if they can’t run away and hide from this team)
$50 sd
$20 min
$5 phi/min/IND/CIN/NYG
$5 mia-ATL OVER/den-CIN OVER/nyj-HOU OVER
6 quanimal // Sep 12, 2009 at 10:30 pm
again, here’s “eric”, using a fake name so he can lay bets both ways. trbl.
and welcome helene! i love love love love that you’re playing. whenever women set out to prove to men that football knowledge is completely arbitrary and the ability to call games doesn’t exist, they almost always end up doing better. that’s just how the world works. and yet somehow, the fact that this happens, only reassures me of my gambling prowess.
i lost my opening teaser, but i’m either gonna shoot out of the gate or i’m gonna be starting from a big hole.
$50 – ind
$50 – dal
$40 – CIN
$10 eff erik in the a special – NO/chi/ind
7 quanimal // Sep 13, 2009 at 7:50 am
Chasin Dumb Money Lines: These bets are all moneyline bets and $10 each
kc, den, det, OAK, buf, stl
8 quanimal // Sep 14, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Hey! My calculations show I’m only down 60 bob bucks this week!
$100 – NE
$100 – sd
$10 NE/sd/ne-BUF under/sd-OAK over
$10 NE/sd/ne-BUF over/sd-OAK over