in many ways, this final week of BTG mirrors the final week of the NFL. helene has all but locked up this years title. the only development is the clusterfuck that is the rest of us penis bearing chumps. 3 games separate 2nd place alfredo from last place eric. in even more surprising news, “erik” has managed to finally get out of the cellar.

the thing is, i’m actually not that upset that helene is going to win with her patented hometown/cat mascot super system of picking games.  i’m just really upset that i am going to finish below .500 for the second year in a row.  i’m officially terell owens, past my prime.  fredo has the excuse of kids and erik and eric have the excuse of living in pennsylvania.  i have no excuse other than….oh wait a minute, i totally kicked ass in bob bucks this year.  sports genius is intact.  on with the picks of the most meaningless games of the year.  as always, numbers from caesars and home team in caps.

BUF (-8) over ind, o/u – 33, bills (-400) colts (+400)
no implications for playoff seeing whatsoever, so penis nose experiments with acid this week and rides the pine as does all of indy’s starters. but that’s not why i’m taking the bills. i’m taking the bills because i’ve decided to use this last week to unveil my new system of picking nfl games. it’s similar to helene’s cat/hometown system. however, instead of cats, i always take teams whose mascots were also nicknames for fictional serial killers from jodie foster movies. peyton puts the lotion in the basket. put the fucking lotion in the basket penis nose!

CAR (-7) over no, o/u – 41, panthers (off) saints (off)
rule #2 of the new bob super system. always take teams in areas that could possibly be ravaged by hurricane. when both teams are located in hurricane country, take the team in the city where live sex acts are legal. which reminds me, it’s been way too long since i’ve been to the big easy.

CLE (-1) over jax, o/u – 35, browns (off) jaguars (off)
rule #3: always take teams whose mascot better describes the color of shit. the jagoffs need a lot of help to make the playoffs, yet curiously, there is no call by the media for jack del rio’s head.

phi (+3) over DAL, o/u – 47.5, eagles (+135) cowboys (-155)
time out on the super system for this game. jinx jinx jinx jinx jinx. let me go ahead and put out a prediction from the overreactor. if the cowboys win this game, they win the super bowl.

chi (-3) over DET, o/u – 44.5, bears (-170) lions (+150)
rule #4 is actually the same from the previous system. never take the lions.

HOU (-7) over ne, o/u – 46, texans (-330) patriots (+250)
rule #5: take the team with the qb’s gf/wife you’d rather have sex with. it’s a close call since giselle is hot and all, but matt schaub is dating erik’s sister and we all know what she’s pretty amazing in the sack.

MIA (+3) over pit, o/u – 45.5, dolphins (+155) steelers (-175)
see rule #2. you know, we really ought to be just betting the first half lines since any number of scenarios will eliminate either (and most likely both) of these teams by halftime.

nyg (+8.5) over MIN, o/u – 47.5, giants (+280) vikings (-360)
rule #6: when in doubt, eff brett favre.

NYJ (-9.5) over cin, o/u – 34, jets (-500) bengals (+350)
rule #7: take possible weapons used in major terrorist attacks over cats.

sfo (-7.5) over STL, o/u – 40.5, niners (-360) rams (+280)
rule #8: take the team whose city has a higher % of LGBT citizens. also, if the rams win this game and the lions lose, the lions actually win the tiebreaker for the #1 draft pick. the rams should do everything in their power to lose this game so that they have the right to draft donkeykong suh.  corallary to rule #8: make the team whose only win is against the lions your big bet.

TAM (+2.5) over atl, o/u – 41.5, buccaneers (+120) falcons (-140)
rule #9: take the city with better strip clubs. this is actually a close call. but i think mons venus beats the gold club. from wikipedia:

Furthermore, Mons Venus (like other Tampa strip clubs) permits its customers to touch and even fondle dancers, as long as there is no genital contact.

which reminds me, it’s been too long since i’ve been to trigga city.

ARI (-3.5) over gb, o/u – 44.5, cardinals (-140) packers (+120)
rule #10: take legitimate urban areas over backwater whitey cities. it should be noted that i hate picking this game because the cards level of effort could be dictated by the outcome of the early minnesota game.

kc (+10) over DEN, o/u – 38, chiefs (+350) broncos (-500)
rule #11: respect the native american mascot. no idea on this one.

OAK (+10) over bal, o/u – 38, raiders (+450) ravens (-650)
rule #12: take the team that has moved cities the most. the raiders have been a bit of a spoiler this season, so why not?

SDO (-3) over was, o/u – 39.5, chargers (-160) redskins (+140)
exception to rule #11: if said team is owned by a midget who is running a storied franchise into the ground…but seriously, teams whose coaches are about to be fired never do that well. and lastly, in the season finale of bruthaz:

jason campbell: man, i just don’t know about mike shanahan. i don’t know if i can work in his system.

obama: don’t worry jason, black qbs have always flourished in denver…oh wait a minute.

jason campbell: that’s what i’m talking about. you’re the president, isn’t there anything you can do?

obama: now come on jason, you know i can’t take advantage of my influence in this town.

jason campbell: sellout.

ten (-6) over SEA, o/u – 45, titans (-270) seahawks (+210)
rule #13: there are no rules. and we’ll put the system on trial.

it’s christmas vacation people. i don’t have time for this crap. hopefully you’ve figured out how this works by now. if not, numbers from caesar’s and home team in caps.

GB (-14) over sea, o/u – 41.5, packers (-900) seahawks (+600)

oak (+3) over CLE, o/u – 38, raiders (+155) browns (-175)

CIN (-13.5) over kc, o/u – 40.5, bengals (-800) chiefs (+550)

buf (+9) over ATL, o/u – 41, bills (+325) falcons (-450)

MIA (-3) over hou, o/u – 45, dolphins (-145) texans (+125)

NYG (-7) over car, o/u – 42, giants (-360) panthers (+280)

NO (-14) over tam, o/u – 49.5, saints (-900) buccaneers (+600)

jax (+8) over NE, o/u – 43.5, jaguars (+280) patriots (-360)

PIT (-3) over bal, o/u – 42, steelers (-145) ravens (+125)

PHI (-7) over den, o/u -41.5, eagles (-330) broncos (+250)

ARI (-14.5) over stl, o/u – 43.5, cardinals (-1000) rams (+700)

SFO (-13) over det, o/u – 41.5, niners (-800) rams (+550)

IND (-5.5) over nyj, o/u – 40.5, colts (-240) jets (+190)

WAS (+7) over dal, o/u – 42, redskins (+250) cowboys (-330)

min (-7) over CHI, o/u – 41, vikings (-330) bears (+250)

so i’m at home, so no photoshop means no updated charts.  just know that helene did well last week and i sucked.  dammit.  also, snow is stupid.  merry effing christmas.

TEN (-3) over sdo, o/u – 47, titans (-160) chargers (+140)

it seems kinda cruel to me to force people to play football on christmas. well, maybe not to jewish people or muslims, but still. in any case, these last two weeks are about as complete crapshoot as you can get. with season endgames part of the mix, it’s hard to know who’s going to be playing and who isn’t. titans fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt and the chargers locked into the #2 seed. seems obvious enough to me.

normally i would start off this post by calling attention the the fact that fredo got a stellar 11 wins last week in what was a pretty tough week to call games.  unfortunately, fredo’s achievement will go unnoticed this week as i went an astonishing 15-2 last week, including hitting my big bet and winning big in the bob bucks round.  if you keep up with the comments you will see that i went into the sunday night game with a perfect 14-0 record for the week.  i can’t even begin to tell you how awesome i am for doing it.  if you really think about it, we should end the season now.  there’s no reason really to go on as i have accomplished the closest thing we’ve seen to perfection.  if i were banging skanky truckstop waitresses, they would call me the tiger woods of handicapping.  and yet there is another reason to go on.  helene and i have drawn into a dead tie with three weeks remaining.  pan-ethnic pride is at stake here.  and even though technically we lost the war and korea tied, vietnam shall triumph this time around.  let’s take a look at the standings, shall we?

do you like the blue and silver color scheme?  good because the cowboys season is BACK ON MOFO!  that’s right, the boys are back in business.  it’s amazing how the fortunes of a team can turn on one game.  the cowboys went from going into rebuilding mode to super bowl contenders in one game.  and that’s why i love the nfl.  in any case, eric is out of bob bucks now as well and like erik, will not compete in final jeapordy.  now before we get on with the picks, i had some free time at work and i did a little statistical charting of everyone’s progress this season.  first up, let’s track everyone’s winning percentage through the season.



as we can see here, it took about 8 weeks for everyone to settle into their current trends. notice, that there hasn’t been much movement since that time.  of course, the exception being me and my masterpiece week last week.  helene has been virtually a wire to wire leader and erik….well, is doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the proper conclusion to draw from his line.  next up, bob bucks progress:

a much more interesting story can be seen here.  eric started off pretty hot, but had a brutal stretch between week 7 and 10.  fredo has been rock solid being in the black the whole time.  it took me a while but i’ve moved within striking distance with last weeks’ virtuoso performance.  helene has held pretty steady close to being even, but losing a little bit more every week.  and then there’s erik.  if you look closely at erik’s performance, you’ll see that there was only one week where he didn’t lose money.  say it with me people, TRBL.  so what do these charts tell us.  well, as with most numbers and statistics, it’s actually difficult to make any strong statements about overall performance.  usually you are lucky if you can find one clearly defined trend.  and well, that trend is pretty obvious.  erik is an idiot.  anyways, on with the picks!  numbers from caesars and home team in all caps.

PIT (-2.5) over gb, o/u – 40.5, steelers (-135) packers (+115)
just seems like one of those games where the steelers pull together enough to save some face on the season. the pack’s recent performance is entirely overrated and it looks like they will be easy wildcard pickins for whatever team gets hot enough to score that first playoff game with them.

TEN (-5) over mia, o/u – 42.5, titans (-240) dolphins (+190)
the thing about the dolphins is that they’re underrated, but they’re still not good enough to win anything important. also with chris johnson virtually assured to reach 2,000 yards, is it time we start comparing him to emmitt smith instead of barry sanders?

ne (-7) over BUF, o/u – 40.5, patriots (-330) bills (+270)
doesn’t randy moss have a point? in this culture of all or nothing, and second place is first loser, what incentive does he have to try if the patriots are clearly outmatched by not only the colts, but probably the chargers too? there are players all over the league who have mailed it in. i say leave randy alone.

ari (-14) over DET o/u – 47, cardinals (-1000) lions (+700)
not even 10 years ago, daunte culpepper was the best qb in the league. just something to think about. also, despite increasing the number of wins by a factor of infinity, i think we can see that the lions are still at least 3 years away from respectability. detroit on the other hand, with some reports of an unimaginable 50% unemployment rate, is on the fast track of becoming the first major american city to actually die. thanks obama.

PHI (-7.5) over sfo, o/u – 41, eagles (-400) niners (+300)
no idea. is philadelphia getting some of this crazy snow out east?

atl (+7) over NYJ, o/u – 36, falcons (+220) jets (-300)
by the way, it was 75 degrees in santa barbara today.

chi (+11) over BAL, o/u – 39, bears (+450) ravens (-650)
i heard that washington area is getting a ton of snow, which theoretically should keep this game close. also, now that the pressure is off, watch jay cutler start to kick some ass again.

cle (+2) over KC, o/u – 37, browns (+110) chiefs (-130)
extra three days of rest for the browns from the thursday game last week should be enough to do the trick against crapola.  big bet on the browns emmeffers!

hou (-14) over STL, o/u – 43.5, texans (off) rams (off)
i’d like to take the home dog here, but the rams qb has the worst name in the history of the national football league (say that last sentence in a ron jaworski voice); keith null. the only name that could less inspiring for a quarterback is ennui zed.

cin (+7) over SDO, o/u – 43.5, bengals (+250) chargers (-330)
sorry, you won’t catch me betting against the ghost of chris henry.

DEN (-14) over oak, o/u – 37, broncos (-1100) raiders (+700)
have fun in denver charlie frye. also, this is the second game with week with a ml for the favorite of over -1000 bucks (arizona is -1000 too). not good for gambling or football. the obvious solution is contraction.

SEA (-6.5) over tam, o/u – 39.5, seahawks (-300) buccaneers (+220)
i have an idea for the last three weeks of the season. you know how NBC has the flex option for the sunday night game to get better games on tv? the NFL should institute the anti-flex game for late season games that don’t matter. just don’t play them. tampa bay doesn’t have to make the cross country trip and we don’t have to sit through paying attention to seahawks blow out the rookie quarterback on the road.

min (-9) over CAR, o/u – 42.5, vikings (-450) panthers (+325)
i don’t know who’s starting at qb for the panthers. nor do i care. oh hey, here’s another idea! in games like this, they should have an all-time qb like you did in grade school when only one kid was good enough to actually throw a football in pickup games. more brett favre! everyone wins.

WAS (+3) over nyg, 43.5, redskins (+130) giants (-140)
this week on “bruthaz”:

obama pulls a hamstring playing basketball and jason campbell shows him a massage technique that chris cooley once showed him when they were roommates in training camp. one thing leads to another and….oh wait a minute. sorry about that, that was an episode recap for this week’s episode of “bruthaz on bruthaz”.

a friday AND a saturday game.  money ruins everything people.  anyways, i figured i’d get these up when i had the chance.  trust me, there shall be a very high quality post with the rest of the picks to celebrate my week of complete football genius.

JAX (+3.5) over ind, o/u – 42.5, jaguars (-135) colts (-155)
so i was talking to penis nose the other day about what he was going to do in games now that the colts have wrapped up home field for the playoffs. this is what he said:

remember that show playmakers on espn about that fake football team? and remember when omar epps snuck away at halftime to smoke some meth? well i always liked that show so as a tribute, i’m gonna sneak away after the first 2 series to one of the luxury suites in jacksonville’s stadium, lord knows jags fans won’t be using them. i figure i’ll get some of the jags cheerleaders and dallas clark to meet me up there. i’m gonna have a mountain of coke like tony montana in scarface and i’m gonna see how many times i can blow my wad before the end of the game. right now bodog has the the over/under as 10. take the over my friend, take the over. also brett favre has arranged to tape the whole thing and sell it as the first volume of a DVD series called “Penis Noses Gone Wild”. we even already bought a commercial spot during the superbowl, which should dovetail nicely with us beating the saints.

NO (-7) over dal, o/u – 53.5, saints (-330) cowbows (+250)
remember how the cowboys’ season ended last year in philly? well, same shit different year. season is double over after this one.

UPDATE: I think there’s something screwy with the table.  If you notice any consistencies in your record let me know.  I’ll get to it later this afternoon.

2ND UPDATE: I figured it out.  Helene is only 10 games over 500, which means i take back all of the stuff i said below.  we’re totally gonna catch her.  revised table below.

well folks, i think it’s safe to say that this season is over.  helene has a nearly insurmountable 20 game lead with 4 weeks left to go.  as i mentioned in week 1, whenever women do this in an effort to show that this whole gambling thing is completely random, they always win.  always.  it’s just how life is.  with 10 wins last week, including hitting her 3 team cat parlay, helene has showed us that the game has officially passed up by.  in some sense, i’m discouraged since it’s been a few years since i’ve finished above 500.  but in another sense, i am comforted, knowing that vegas has things so figured out when it comes to football.  whatever the case, i salute you helene and your feline mascot based picking system which apparently is foolproof.  well played my asian sister, well played.  however, the season is not over and i won’t quit trying to get over the hump.  i’ve had a bad few weeks and that’s because i’ve taken way too many road teams.  i think there may be something to the theory that home teams rule in december.  except for the cowboys in which case, you just suck.

in any case, it’s nut cutting time in the NFL and the playoff picture is mostly muddled as most of the wildcard spots are still up for grabs in both conferences.  my picks this week feature many more home teams than the last two weeks and also a lot of fantasy jinxing as we enter the playoffs in fantasy football.  lastly before we begin, i have to say, picking the browns moneyline on thursday night was a stroke of pure genius on my part.  nothing like starting the weekend with 400 bob bucks burning a hole in my pocket.  as always, numbers from caesars, and home team in caps.

IND (-7) over den, o/u – 44, colts (-330) broncos (+250)
penis nose penis nose penis nose.

MIN (-6.5) over cin, o/u – 43.5, vikings (-300) bengals (+220)
i want to believe in the bengals, but the best case scenario for them is a wildcard round win. after losing the game with a bunch of interceptions, brett favre will revert back to counting his money while AP scores a bunch of touchdowns.

nyj (-3) over TAM, o/u – 37, jets (-180) buccaneers (+160)
no idea on this one. maybe i was wrong about josh freeman because he sure does make a lot of bonehead plays. although i’m not thrilled at the prospect of wagering on kellen clemens on the road.

buf (pk) over KC, o/u – 37.5, bills (off) chiefs (off)
nothing like two teams playing out the string in december, heh? i should take the chiefs here, but they just stink.

gb (-3) over CHI, o/u – 41, packers (-175) bears (+155)
i lump the packers into the same category as the bengals. decent team, but can’t seriously contend for anything. let’s hope that there’s some snow in this game, because otherwise, this is blowout. big bet.

ATL (+10) over no, o/u – 50, falcons (+375) saints (-550)
no reason to take the falcons here. but i think with home field pretty much secured, the saints will put it into cruise control here. also fantasy jinx #1 – need big days from marques colston and pierre thomas.

BAL (-13.5) over det, o/u – 39.5, ravens (-800) lions (+550)
a quick tale of the tape:

muder rate per 100,000 population
detroit: 45.8, baltimore: 45.2 – tie

unemployment rate
detroit: 27.9%, baltimore: 10.6% – winner: detroit

corrupt mayors
detroit: kwame kilpatrick (real), baltimore: clarence royce (fictional) – winner: detroit

proximity to curtis granderson
detroit: 489.9 miles, baltimore: 172.6 miles – winner: detroit

starting qb this sunday
detroit: culpepper, baltimore: falcco – winner: nobody

mia (+2.5) over JAX, o/u – 44, dolphins (+120) jaguars (-140)
this is more of a matter of principle to me. the dolphins are just a better team. and since there’s not that much travel involved, i suspect that half of the half empty stadium in jacksonville will be rooting for the dolphins anyways.

car (+13.5) over NE, o/u – 44, panthers (+550) patriots (-800)
fantasy jinx #2, i have tom brady going and need him to shred the panthers.

HOU (-6.5) over sea, o/u – 44.5, texans (-270) seahawks (+210)
hey look, another crappy game.

TEN (-13) over stl, o/u – 41.5, titans (-800) rams (+550)
i’m starting to lose my will to watch football this weekend.

was (-1) over OAK, o/u – 37.5, redskins (off) raiders (off)
god, somebody just shoot me and put me out of my misery.

sdo (+3) over DAL, o/u – 48.5, chargers (+145) cowboys (-165)
finally, a decent game. except it’s not. dammit. half jinx, half i think the chargers are going to end up in the afc championship game.

NYG (-1) over phi, o/u – 44, giants (off) eagles (off)
back to the garage with the engine running.

ari (-3.5) over SFO, o/u – 44.5, cardinals (-200) niners (+170)
what a crappy slate of games. sorry that this post sucks, but i can’t get excited about anything this week.

CLE (+10) over pit, o/u – 33, browns (+400) steelers (-600)
i’m tired of trusting the steelers. they might and probably will win, but here are the losses for the steelers this year: @chi, @cin, cin, @kc, @bal, oak. 10 points is a lot for a team that doesn’t play well on the road and has a lot of losses to some bad teams. oh what they hey, i talked myself into it. give me 100 bucks on the moneyline.